地震預測

地震預測（earthquake prediction）是預測一次地震發生的時間、地點和規模。地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間^[1]，然而對地下構造瞭解的進步，科學家能透過震災危害度評估，提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間，發生在某區域的機率，以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範。雖然部份證據表明，對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值，然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立，也無法重製，所以地震學家及地質學家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想。

爭議

人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震，例如電磁場、天氣狀況、地震雲、土壤或地下水的氡氣或氫氣含量、井水水位及動物行為等。

地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性；一方面是因為資料不足，另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論。此外，只要做出大量預測，便容易碰巧言中。大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型；由於大地震鮮少發生，其地點與時間又相當集中，目前我們很難鑑定一次「成功」的預測是否只是僥倖而已。

2009年拉奎拉地震發生後，幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告，依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑，在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲，學者警告這恐造成寒蟬效應。^[2] 厄爾斯特大學（University of Ulster）地震物理學教授史迪西（Sandy Steacy）認為：「若維持原判，這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應。」科學工作者關懷聯盟（UCS）學者郝普恩（Michael Halpern）認為：「這項決定荒謬又危險，美國官員應該非難它，義大利總統喬治奧·納波利塔諾（Giorgio Napolitano）應該推翻這個決定。」英國地質調查所（BGS）的穆森（Roger Musson）說：「這6名科學家說的是正確的，任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法。他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑，這是錯的。」

預測方法

電磁波異常

實驗證明，岩石在破裂之前，會釋放出電磁波，然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問；部份研究則認為是岩石內的石英受到壓力時產生的壓電效應所造成；也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起。 ^[3]

Demeter微型衛星

Demeter（希臘神話的女神得墨忒耳）為地震區電磁放射偵測（英文："Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions"）的縮寫。Demeter衛星由法國國家太空研究中心建造，目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係，並在2004年9月5日日本東海地方發生面波震級7.1地震前一週觀察到明顯的電離層活動及溫度變化^[4]。

VAN方法

VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位希臘學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法。此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號（英文：seismic electric signals），部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震，震央誤差在100公里以內、震度誤差在0.7個單位內、時間窗口為2小時至11天。這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察^[5]，此外也在日本激起一些科學上的興趣^[6]。

水氡異常

指地下水中氡氣含量的突然大幅度增加或減少。在多次大地震前已觀測到這種現象，其原因可能是地應力的變化使岩石釋放出一定量的氡氣，從而導致地下水中氡氣含量的變化。

地震活動型態的改變

前震

發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震，依照發生次序可分為前震、主震和餘震，難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震。不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前，斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加，最著名的案例為1975年的海城地震。

動物行為

根據民間傳說，一些動物能預知地震來臨，特別是貓、狗、雞、馬及其他小型動物；大型動物對此則較不敏感。^{[原創研究？]}日本學者也曾對鯰魚的行為進行長期研究。^{[來源請求]}

也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻電磁輻射信號。科羅拉多大學的學者證實石英岩斷裂時能藉壓電效應產生電磁活動。這類活動可於震前在斷層線上發生。根據最近的研究，電磁感應器能在統計學的意義上有效預測地震^[7]

中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現，並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的海城地震；然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震。關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可；目前還無法證明動物能預知地震，即使動物能感知P波，但地震儀對此更敏感^[8]。

案例

中國

中國地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件，例如地下水位、動物行為或前震等等。有報道與學者統計自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了遼寧省海城大地震^[9]起，中國地震學家根據統計學與臨震異常共預測成功並發布了短期、臨震預報的地震共有28次^[10]^[11]。包括了1990年9月22日北京小湯山4級地震^[12]、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8級地震^[13]^[14]、1995年7月12日雲南孟連7.3級地震^[15]、1997年4月6日新疆伽師6.3級、6.4級地震^[16]、2003年雲南大姚7月21日6.2級地震、10月16日6.1級地震^[17]、2003年10月25日甘肅民樂6.1級地震^[18]等。

但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前雖有中長期趨勢判斷，但並無短期、臨震預報。造成當次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重傷；2008年5月12日的汶川大地震，同樣也無短震、臨震預報，最終造成69,227到300,000人死亡，374,643人受傷，17,923人失蹤。

美國

2004年初，洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學由弗拉迪米爾·波洛克帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震，機率是百分之五十。

到了2004年4月，加州地震預報評估委員會（CEPEC）向州政府報告「預測並不可靠，而且涉及的地域廣大（12,400平方哩），所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由。」^[19]結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震。

義大利

2009年拉奎拉地震發生前一個月，一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員，根據地面增加的放射性氡氣排放量，研判會有大地震發生。結果他被義大利民防單位指控危言聳聽，還被移送警方偵辦，罪名是製造民眾恐慌。而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時，官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議，大量接受媒體訪問，保證說不會發生地震。官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊，7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名、求處4年徒刑。

地震預警

地震的預警監測比地震預測更可靠，其原理是偵測P波；P波在地殼中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的S波及雷利波，故可先期偵測。此法只能提早數秒（對於較深及較遠的大地震，或可達數十秒）預警。現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard™ ^[20] 的系統能用這套技術自動應變，以減少人員及財產損失。

加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於《自然》的一篇論文中聲稱：在地震發生的前幾秒，可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小^[21]，它的結果還沒被其它學者認可。若然，則地震的早期預警將能更為有效。

參考文獻

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^ 錢鋼. 在地震预警问题的背后 (PDF). 《二十一世紀》雙月刊 (香港中文大學). 2008, (108期): P104 [2018-12-21]. （原始內容存檔 (PDF)於2018-12-21）.
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外部連結

美國地質局對地震預測的觀點（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）
潮汐力與地震的相關研究：發表於1967（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）年與1968（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）年，然而 U.S. Geological Survey: Common Myths About Earthquakes一文的觀點與之相左。
唐山大地震背後的真相（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）
日本因預測地震仍有困難廢除地震預知委員會（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）
《自然》文章稱地震不可預測或影響日本地震預報政策（頁面存檔備份，存於網際網路檔案館）

參見

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[18] 楊立明. 甘肃省民乐6．1级地震短期预报的简要回顾与启示. 國際地震動態. 2004, (2004年第1期): P15-P17 [2018-12-21]. （原始內容存檔於2018-12-21）.

[19] （英文）California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council. Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services (PDF). 2002年3月 [2006年10月22日]. （原始內容 (PDF)存檔於2008年5月27日）.

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[21] （英文）Rachel Abercrombie. The start of something big?. Nature. 2005-11-09: 171 [2006年10月22日]. （原始內容存檔於2006年6月29日）.

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