库兹涅茨周期

库兹涅茨周期（英语：Kuznets swing / Kuznets cycle）是西蒙·库兹涅茨在1930年发现的中等长度的经济周期，长为15–25年。^[1]库兹涅茨把这些周期与人口过程联系在一起，特别是与移民流入/流出以及它们引起的建筑建设强度变化联系在一起，因此这种周期也称为“人口”或“建筑”周期。也有人将库兹涅茨周期解释为基础设施投资周期。^[2]

一些现代经济评论家认为，库兹涅茨的变化反映了土地价值的18年周期。^[3]^[4]弗雷德·哈里森（英语：Fred Harrison）认为，可以通过对土地价值征收年度税（地价税）来平滑或完全避免这种繁荣与萧条的循环。^[5]

库兹涅茨的分析受到豪锐（Howrey，1968）的批评。^[6]豪锐称，库兹涅茨发现的表观上的商业周期是他选用的“滤波器”造成的假象。豪锐提出，当使用库兹涅茨滤波器时，白噪声序列中也出出现相同的周期性模式。^[7]不过，库兹涅茨的主张，即使不使用库兹涅茨滤波器也可以在全球GDP动态中发现波动。^[8]

参考文献

^ Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
^ See, e.g., Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.
^ The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle. Cato Institute. 2010-01-22 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2018-10-26）.
^ Why we must halt the land cycle. Financial Times. [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-03-17）.
^ Harrison, Fred. Fred Harrison: Want to get rid of boom and bust? Tax land, not income. The Guardian. 2005-04-11 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-05-16）.
^ Howrey, E. "A spectrum analysis of the long swing hypothesis." International Economic Review. 9:228-252. 1968.
^ Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research." in Real Business Cycles: A Reader. eds. James Hartley, Kevin Hoover, and Kevin D. Salyer. 1998. p. 636.
^ Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

[1] Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.

[2] See, e.g., Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

[3] The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle. Cato Institute. 2010-01-22 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2018-10-26）.

[4] Why we must halt the land cycle. Financial Times. [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-03-17）.

[5] Harrison, Fred. Fred Harrison: Want to get rid of boom and bust? Tax land, not income. The Guardian. 2005-04-11 [2020-03-31]. （原始内容存档于2020-05-16）.

[6] Howrey, E. "A spectrum analysis of the long swing hypothesis." International Economic Review. 9:228-252. 1968.

[7] Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research." in Real Business Cycles: A Reader. eds. James Hartley, Kevin Hoover, and Kevin D. Salyer. 1998. p. 636.

[8] Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

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